Stock Watch

Biotech has always been a volatile sector, and it is important for investors to recognize the phases its stocks go through. In particular, the journey through the post-bubble wilderness can be a protracted affair.

Medicare price renegotiation and the FTC’s scrutiny of biopharma acquisitions have suppressed sector stock prices. But the sector may not be the actual target.

GLP-1 agonists are creating a stir in obesity management and could possibly prevent non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, with implications for developers of NAFLD treatments. Similarly, another preventative intervention might succeed the treatments for Alzheimer’s disease.

CSL’s evolution from plasma fractioneer to biotech has reached the extent of an approved gene therapy just as gene therapy commercialization faces challenges. Meanwhile, in the post-pandemic inflationary environment, CSL’s margins in its biggest blood products division are impacted by increased donor fees and higher labor costs.

The commercial and clinical successes of Lilly and Novo's respective GLP-1 receptor agonists provided an explosive finale to the second-quarter earnings season but also raised questions on reimbursement.

While not direct competitors in all therapeutic areas, Pfizer’s and Merck’s sales offered some stark contrasts in the second quarter.

The pandemic distorted much in drug and diagnostic companies’ quarterly financial reports, but that time is over and investors now applaud organic revenue growth.

Pharmaceutical stocks have underperformed in the year to date, but J&J, Novartis and GSK may have started to turn the worm.

Novartis’s positive start to second-quarter earnings season also made more acute the potential impact of the recent invalidation of the patent on its biggest product.

Phase II studies of vaccines involve more variables than for drugs and these can be compounded by seasonality. This can make the time until vaccine approval longer than would be expected for drugs.

The outcome of any clinical study is uncertain but the choice of active comparator and sometimes even the placebo arm can magnify unpredictability. Emgality’s recent head-to-head failure in migraine is just the latest in a long list of casualties.

Hospital procedures are rebounding following the pandemic and the US population is aging. But what sounds like good news for pharma is curbed by the risk of Medicare insolvency, and suing the government cannot solve that.

Exciting early results in gene editing contrast with issues around traditional gene therapies, including non-responders, safety and questions over the duration of efficacy.

There are many new pressures on biopharmaceutical profitability but will Merck & Co’s attempt to reverse the drug pricing aspects of the Inflation Reduction Act just divert costs to patients?

What is the difference between companies with franchises that rise and then fall into obscurity, and those that keep on rising even after loss of exclusivity?

Companies that are successful do not need to change their name, therapeutic area or product focus.