Stock Watch

Three new vaccines to prevent RSV infections in seniors and sales trends in pediatric vaccines highlight a shift away from childhood vaccines and a possible age-related immunity deficit.

Presenting at conferences allows companies to showcase data on new drugs and secure licensing partners, as well as further investment by shareholders. But two presentations at the recent EHA conference had the opposite effect.

When life hands a biotech company the equivalent of good grapes, the expectations are for its products to be the equivalent of fine wine. Before that Moderna looks likely to make lemonade.

Clinical trial results that readily excite stock market investors are subject to more stringent analysis by big pharma deal-hunters, despite their urgent need for pipeline renewal.

Investors reacted quite differently to Bayer’s first-quarter results and those of its licensing partner Regeneron. There are sound reasons for this. It seems unlikely that one will help the other.

Falling sales are not typically welcomed by investors, while good revenue growth is prized. The first-quarter earnings season provided exceptions to this rule, and then there was Amgen.

Investors warmed to the results of both GSK and AstraZeneca, where pressures that had emerged for competitors earlier in first-quarter earnings season were not as impactful.

After the volatility of pandemic-related sales, investor and analyst attention turned to pharma’s core businesses. With exclusivity losses weighing on those large components of pharma, Sanofi’s reclassification may bring some unwelcome attention.

The sun shines over a sector with multi-blockbuster products in their prime. But clouds are looming, and highly innovative products that cannot replace the sales shortfalls could lead to a re-rating of the sector’s growth prospects.

J&J’s Medtech division outshone pharma while recently launched innovative products contributed minimally: it is to be hoped investors’ reactions to the first set of big pharma Q1 results will not set the tempo for earnings season.

In contrast to the SEC’s view that public companies’ regulatory filings give investors all the information needed to make an investment decision, the discount rate used to value a company may not reflect all its risks.

Healthcare conglomerates that divorce consumer, animal health and even generics businesses from their pure-play branded pharmaceutical groups could leave a less diversified and riskier sector in uncertain times. But the advantages are apparent.

The overused phrase ‘pipeline in a product’ translates to ‘disappointment in a product’ when the number of indications in the pipeline contracts towards zero.

Social media-promoted vaccine hesitancy could have been a factor in the dip in established fourth-quarter vaccine sales with younger age groups targeted rather than seniors. Other drug categories may benefit from lifestyle changes prompted by the pandemic.

As drug pricing continues its ascent among hot button issues, the multi-million-dollar price tags for one-and-done advanced therapies, their justification and reimbursement all remain unaligned.

It is not ideal to miss the emergence of competition that could reduce your market. Even worse is not to find out that your drug is inferior to generic competition until the end of Phase III.